Is economic recovery looming?

With the local elections in the Netherlands in front of us (3th of March 2010), there is a tendency to relativate the crisis, or at least say recovery has already started and make future plans. Most of the pain seems to be over, according many of the aldermen. The focus of government and council is shifting towards the elections, the crisis is shifting somehow to the background, out of the center of the debate. The crisis over? In my view it is not. It will take some time. We have to work very hard as city managers to take the right measures and prepare for government cutting edge plans and projects. As manager I therefor focus on leading companies in the world, to sense what possible developments will be. One of them is Swiss Re, a leading global reinsurer.

“The global economy grew in the second half of 2009, but the recovery is fragile. Growth will generally be below trend in the major economies in 2010, but will accelerate modestly in 2011. Monetary policy will shift to tightening in late 2010 at the earliest, and reductions in fiscal stimulus will follow shortly afterwards. As a consequence, growth and inflation are subdued,” said Thomas Hess, Swiss Re’s Chief Economist, at the company’s Economic Forum press conference in London this morning.

Fragile is the word, medio 2011 economic recovery, and from there in 2012 or later social recovery. Am I pessimistic. Think not. Feels as realistic and maybe still optimistic. My mission: ‘building trust’. Therefor one should be realistic.

Multi-level governance

Luc Van den Brande, President of the EU Committee of the Regions, presented last week to José Manuel Barroso, the President of the European Commission, the CoR’s White Paper on multi-level governance. In other words: the way to more collaboration between each level of government, this in a wide variety of policy areas. Europe, national governments, provinces and municipalities collaborate… to act ‘as one’. The White Paper CoR is a sincere piece of work and a honest attempt to bridge the gap, to contribute to this collaboration.

For climate change an interesting approach. European citizens expect their local and regional authorities to play a significant role in tackling greenhouse gas emissions. Every municipality has one way or another a proposal agreed by its council to do something on climate change. Europe can in the overall scale of the problem play a crucial role here, in my view better than the member states separately can and much better than all municipalities can. We are all in the individuals (Life of Brian). This cannot be. Cohesion policy by the European Committee and Council (Van Rompuy!) is the magic word here. It is the road to a balanced development of Europe. Cohesion policy. Yes.

Multi-level governance, cohesion policy, Europe and the citizen, Europe is going local. We enter the new world of Europe. Are you ready?

Copenhagen: 450 parts per million

The mainstream view is that carbon dioxide concentrations must stabilise at 450 parts per million or below to avoid dangerous climate change. Ok. 450. A challenge. On our way to Copenhagen. It is a self test. A common awareness test. Are we ready? Convinced about the true dangers above the 450-edge? We’re still not there. When will we run into real danger, in latin: riscare?

“What is the score?”, the politician (P) asks his coach.
The scientist (S). “Mmmm, let me see….. 384,38.”
P: “Ok!, what is the problem then? Still everything normal, a wide margin. Where is the fuzz all about?!”
S: “But in 1959 it was 313.26…. “
P: “Yes, And?”
S: “Normal is 280!”
P: “Yes, and?”
S: “We go so fast!”
P: “Yes, and?”
S: “At 450 there is the cliff, sir! It is not just a border crossing. We will fall!”
P: “Yes, that could possibly be a major problem. I will consider to go to San Francisco then! (Sorry, go to my hairdresser tomorrow) to Copenhagen and reconsider the 65 points left.”

Sitting with a glass of red win on a quiet Friday, I remember the melody of my youth (yes, to be frank), I remember the magic words and start singing…:
“All across the nation such a strange vibration,
People in motion,
There’s a whole new generation with a new explanation,
People in motion people in motion
All those who come to Copenhagen
Be sure to wear some flowers in your hair…”

This is the way it should feel. And more than that, the way it should eventually be realized. We have a new index: Critical level 450 MINUS Actual CO2-level. The higher the better. Today the CACO2X: 65,62. Natural level: 170 (450 minus 280). We live with indexes. If this can help. Why not?

Are we one Europe now?

With the appointment of Herman van Rompuy as ‘our’, no no… our new president of the European Council we seem to enter a new era. Does Europe now really exist and did we take a mayor step in self awareness, confidence and identity OR was his appointment just a minor step, an administrative one, fake, virtual reality? Only time will tell.

The appointment of Van Rompuy is in my view a choice for a president, who has respect and understanding for the interests of all memberstates of Europe. It is the best choice regarding the state of Europe (not ‘as one’ but on its way). Van Rompuy is in my view capable to navigate between those interests and to establish the common awareness that only through diplomacy and compromising there is a European way forward. I think, and I really do hope that he will be able to show the member states that this awareness will and can have its pay-off in the very near future. There will be quick-wins. Copenhagen? Despite all disbelief of the last months.

Only the fact that we have a president now, a new leader, will have its impact on our perception of ‘Europe’ a an entity, on our feeling to be ‘one’. Yes we are. It will grow slowly but it will. For the first time after the Roman Empire, we’re back at the world front… as key player. Van Rompuy will qualitate qua improve our image… One Europe. I do want to believe in it, simply because so much cooperation is needed in so many public and social matters.

The fact that he is a Belgian Flemish politician seems almost to be conditionally. It is no coincidence that also Luc VandenBrande of the Committee of the Regions and Jacques Rogge of the International Olympic Committee are so succesful as natural international leaders. What are there secrets? A lot, but I think it is quite simple after all: to be Flemish is a core competence in this international, multinational and multicultural area of management. I know my Flemish colleagues for years know in the network of UDITE and PRIMO Europe and have enormous respect for their style, diplomacy and charm. I truly congratulate all my Flemish friends with the appointment of Van Rompuy. They must feel proud.

Dioscórides in Salamanca

The Universidad de Salamanca disclosed by their project Dioscórides illustrations and descriptions from medicinal plants, as conserved in the 15th and 16th century. These knowledge is from the time the power and influence of the Spanish Empire was on their highest point. The illustrations are beautiful, basic and to the point.

“Edición facsimilar del manuscrito 2659 con el mismo nombre conservado en la Biblioteca Universitaria de Salamanca. Esta joya bibliográfica datada a finales del XV o principios del XVI consta de 191 folios de papel de 330 x 230 mm. Y ofrece los márgenes decorados con ilustraciones de las plantas que se mencionan en el texto. El facsimil está encuadernado en piel y se acompaña de un pequeño volumen que contiene la historia del manuscrito así como explicaciones técnicas y botánicas. “

I am feeling very close to where my scientific interests and education began. It is like feeling home and back to my basics. While I am in the university shop, I was thinking how I can recall, restore all this knowledge of plants and ecosystems, hidden in sometimes far parts of my brain (time is doing is work already), almost forgotten, and apply it to the challenges of my job as city manager? That is the challenge. To link the interesting areas. What a simple visit to a shop can do. How much more is their under the surface?

Home

“Estamos viviendo un periodo crucial. Los científicos afirman que solo tenemos 10 años para cambiar nuestro modo de vida, evitar que los recursos naturales se agoten e impedir una evolución catastrófica del clima de la Tierra.”

I am in Salamanca now, for holiday, and still impressed by the movie Home of Yann Arthus-Bertrand. The website contains more facts and figures: GoodPlanet.org.

What is my answer? Something to reflect on the coming weeks, on my journey in Spain.

Go with the flow… of the flu

I think we have to prepare as good as we can. More we can not do, simple. Is it a hype or will we eventually all become sick? We don’t know. We estimate as good as we can but control, no, no control. Something to learn to live with. No control does not fit within our human dictionary. We have to go with the flow of the flu. It will go where we go, isn’t it?

A virus as our predator. Will he sharpen it’s teeth or just walk by? In the mean time, let us stay very quiet. Yes, we have no control.

Darwin

It is the year of. 200 years ago born like we all. Darwin developed bit by bit his theory. It is complex, that is why I guess. And yes, sometimes hard to understand, even for me as former (am I?) ecologist, but I promised myself to study, not read, study his Origin of Species.

What I do hope actually is that this Darwin year will lead to a more common understanding of where ‘nature’ is all about. And thereby to more respect for. Then the political focus will return. This seems to be washed away with all the social, financial and economic crises we are facing. Will Darwin bring us back on track by showing us how things actually work? And can that please be implemented in the new world order whereabout more and more politicians (very carefully though) about. Is this what they mean with ‘opportunities’? I really do hope so.

Ivan Shishkin

I did not know or hear from him before, Ivan Shishkin (in Russian: Иван Иванович Шишкин), but I met him and his work through my iPod Touch Program “Art“. He is an incredible forest, tree and landscape painter. Here with his painting A Rye Field. It gives quite an impression of the depth of the vast and open Russian landscapes. A masterpiece. See more of his works.

Discovery with Google

You download a free program, Google Earth, on your computer, connect to the internet. One evening you surf over the African continent and see what? A new area, with moutain and forests, which is not displayed on any existing map, is not registrated anywhere!

You have discovered, from behind your desk, a new unknown and unspoiled territory. That is astonishing. Isn’t it. Quite a discovery.

If this happened the way, I descibe it now, I am not sure off, but the discovery of Mozambiques’s Mount Mabu is a story on its own. It is the discovery of a paradise with new species which strangely enough we now do want to protect.

They were protected from men, but with this home-discovery it will, I’m afraid to say, be very difficult to protect them. The area will attract more scientists, new explorers, curious, businessmen, tourists, new inhabitants and with them new roads, stores, factories et cetera.

Wouldn’t it have been better to keep this whole discovery of Mount Mabu very, very secret, such for the sake of this unspoiled ecosystem?